Metal Construction News, January 2021

Design Blasted into a New Future By Frank Stasiowski FAIA CEO PSMJ Resources Inc Blasted into the future by COVID 19 todays professional design fi rms worldwide are one of the best positioned businesses to profi t immensely as we move toward our new normal society in 2021 Ive predicted for years that the 2020s will echo memories of the Roaring 20s from a century ago so now let me explain why this is proving truer with each passing day Primed Before COVID 19 Architects and engineers worldwide have spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past 50 years on the hardware and software necessary to change the entire delivery process from paper to totally interconnected electronic delivery of design In the 1980s we at PSMJ created and owned the largest computer technology tradeshow AEC Systems for design professionals with an annual attendance near 30000 and over 2000 exhibiting companies propelling the entire design industry into the 21st century long before COVID 19 In March a typical design fi rm anyplace in the world already delivered design and specifi cations electronically coupled with project management decisions handled via text and cellphone when COVID 19 shut down offi ces across the world So what happened to those design fi rms They simply moved existing hardware and software with people into their home offi ces and continued further investment into more cloud storage and connectivity In fact our PSMJ Annual Financial Statistics Survey data shows that in 2020 fi rms spent 23 of revenue on software hardware and that because COVID 19 kept people at home working even more both utilization and productivity in design fi rms exploded resulting in incredibly high levels of profi tability for nearly all design fi rms in 2020 Ready to Explode into a New Normal One of the biggest side effects of the COVID closedown in fact is the reduced overhead in most design fi rms in the following areas Less travel time to from offi ces Less use of vacation sick time across the board Selective layoffs of non productive and overhead staff Less investment in all overhead categories including benefi ts such as education and training So today as we hear positive daily reports on COVID 19 vaccines architects and engineers look to next year and beyond not in revolutionary ways but in evolutionary ways The Roaring 20s Ahead With design fi rms positioned to work from anyplace and with 2020 now seen as a year in which most have learned to operate more effectively and effi ciently without commuting to offi ces I predict the next few years will bring 1 More available cash than ever in the market Everyone now knows that with interest rates near zero globally with businesses operating more effi ciently with fewer people with money shifting into exploding new industries and with low tax rates still in place the stage is set for economic growth worldwide in the next several years Each month PSMJ conducts a Quarterly Market Forecast QMF identifying proposal opportunities in all project types and all geographic regions of North America The PSMJ QMF for the next year is as optimistic as we have ever seen driven by the explosion in the housing market Here is a chart of our latest QMF results Note that market by market nearly all markets for new work proposals show increases next year Special note to those in the metal architecture design business there will be a dramatic uptick in industrial warehouse facilities If owners want to expand in any way a supply of cash will not be a problem in 2021 2 Design Innovation Revolution Entering our new normal society nearly all design fi rms will put into their 2021 and beyond design work hundreds of new ways to deal with sustainability fi re proofi ng technology and air handling Every day we learn about another new way to do things driven by the COVID 19 crisis We will not go back to the old normal as buildings transportation systems facilities management and all other facets of our industry evolve and drive into our lexicon the language of innovation in design Just today we learned about a company that has patented a new fi reproofi ng chemical coating for steel that might have prevented the World Trade Center from collapsing So watch carefully every innovative technology that will change forever how we build everything 3 Shift in Society With every major catastrophe we observe massive changes in society World War II gave us the entry of millions of women into the workforce Our last recession changed all the banking and investment rules and now COVID 19 gives us the work shop play from anyplace society So what does this mean for design and construction Here are my predictions 1 Continued shift of people out of cities into resort and suburb housing as they work from anyplace 2 Less business travel 3 Re design of nearly all shopping centers and offi ce buildings 4 Signifi cantly more attention to sustainable design and fl exible design with the useful life of buildings being reduced from decades to years to months 5 Continued triple digit explosion in technology in all aspects of life 6 Resurgence of music concerts of all types major sporting events tradeshows conventions and leisure travel starting in as early as June 2021 Finally Like the Roaring 20s as we come out of COVID 19 expect that our human desire to get back together with other humans will rapidly drive back nearly all of the restaurant entertainment business worldwide Bars will once again fl ourish and you and I will again look forward may be even more to shaking hands not elbows at a design construction industry live event Frank A Stasiowski FAIA is an architect author futurist and strategy consultant globally He is CEO of PSMJ Resources Inc Newton Mass a design industry think tank In 1990 with Sam Milnark cofounder of Modern Trade Communications he created the METALCON tradeshow and conference which is the largest metal architecture tradeshow in the world January 2021 METAL CONSTRUCTION NEWS 27 www metalconstruct ionnews com